Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-41.4% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.9 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $355 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$2,410 (151.6%) on $1,590 risked, vs +$3,968 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 12.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $355 by Sep 18
+$2,410
+151.6% on $1,590 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,590
Premium paid
Break-even
$330.90
+4.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.26 / -12.36 / 54.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | -$1,542 | -$1,577 | -$1,590 | -$1,590 |
| $268 (-15%) | -$1,429 | -$1,523 | -$1,583 | -$1,590 |
| $284 (-10%) | -$1,170 | -$1,351 | -$1,525 | -$1,590 |
| $300 (-5%) | -$691 | -$956 | -$1,280 | -$1,590 |
| $309 (-2%) | -$279 | -$575 | -$961 | -$1,590 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | +$50 | -$256 | -$660 | -$1,558 |
| $322 (+2%) | +$421 | +$114 | -$286 | -$927 |
| $331 (+5%) | +$1,051 | +$757 | +$395 | +$19 |
| $347 (+10%) | +$2,265 | +$2,021 | +$1,762 | +$1,595 |
| $355 (+13%) โ target | +$2,958 | +$2,743 | +$2,535 | +$2,410 |
| $363 (+15%) | +$3,635 | +$3,447 | +$3,277 | +$3,172 |
| $378 (+20%) | +$5,103 | +$4,960 | +$4,840 | +$4,748 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.