Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-41.4% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.9 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.63 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $365 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$2,047 (69.3%) on $2,953 risked, vs +$4,968 (15.8%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 4.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $365 by Sep 18
+$2,047
+69.3% on $2,953 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,953
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$344.53
+9.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
19%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.85 / -21.72 / 108.42
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | +$3,154 | +$3,169 | +$3,233 | +$3,321 |
| $268 (-15%) | +$1,803 | +$1,701 | +$1,671 | +$1,745 |
| $284 (-10%) | +$745 | +$468 | +$209 | +$168 |
| $300 (-5%) | +$127 | -$318 | -$877 | -$1,408 |
| $309 (-2%) | +$6 | -$502 | -$1,186 | -$2,354 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | +$33 | -$495 | -$1,214 | -$2,921 |
| $322 (+2%) | +$144 | -$386 | -$1,097 | -$2,290 |
| $331 (+5%) | +$456 | -$46 | -$681 | -$1,344 |
| $347 (+10%) | +$1,309 | +$905 | +$477 | +$232 |
| $365 (+16%) โ target | +$2,668 | +$2,392 | +$2,161 | +$2,047 |
| $378 (+20%) | +$3,833 | +$3,632 | +$3,479 | +$3,385 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.