Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-41.4% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $300 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.75 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $300 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.65 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $300 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$939 (116.0%) on $810 risked, vs $-1,532 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 23.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $300 by Sep 18
+$939
+116.0% on $810 risked
Max Profit
+$906
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$810
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$315.97
+0.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.31 / 1.06 / 18.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | +$566 | +$587 | +$592 | +$583 |
| $268 (-15%) | +$522 | +$571 | +$617 | +$597 |
| $284 (-10%) | +$417 | +$489 | +$599 | +$680 |
| $300 (-5%) โ target | +$240 | +$303 | +$421 | +$980 |
| $309 (-2%) | +$119 | +$163 | +$242 | +$403 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | +$29 | +$55 | +$96 | +$79 |
| $322 (+2%) | -$62 | -$55 | -$55 | -$180 |
| $331 (+5%) | -$196 | -$216 | -$268 | -$457 |
| $347 (+10%) | -$395 | -$445 | -$538 | -$697 |
| $363 (+15%) | -$549 | -$608 | -$692 | -$781 |
| $378 (+20%) | -$657 | -$707 | -$765 | -$804 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.