Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-41.4% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.63 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $275 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$2,637 (193.5%) on $1,363 risked, vs $-4,032 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 15.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $275 by Sep 18
+$2,637
+193.5% on $1,363 risked
Max Profit
+$30,137
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,363
Premium paid
Break-even
$301.37
-4.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.41 / -9.36 / 54.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | +$4,696 | +$4,746 | +$4,822 | +$4,911 |
| $268 (-15%) | +$3,233 | +$3,224 | +$3,253 | +$3,335 |
| $275 (-13%) โ target | +$2,627 | +$2,581 | +$2,569 | +$2,637 |
| $284 (-10%) | +$1,915 | +$1,819 | +$1,734 | +$1,758 |
| $300 (-5%) | +$818 | +$638 | +$403 | +$182 |
| $309 (-2%) | +$284 | +$73 | -$225 | -$764 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | -$18 | -$239 | -$554 | -$1,363 |
| $322 (+2%) | -$278 | -$500 | -$811 | -$1,363 |
| $331 (+5%) | -$594 | -$803 | -$1,076 | -$1,363 |
| $347 (+10%) | -$956 | -$1,116 | -$1,285 | -$1,363 |
| $363 (+15%) | -$1,162 | -$1,266 | -$1,347 | -$1,363 |
| $378 (+20%) | -$1,271 | -$1,329 | -$1,360 | -$1,363 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.