Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-41.4% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $345 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $315.32 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $300 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.65 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $345 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,203 (6.8%) on $32,297 risked, vs +$2,968 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $345 by Sep 18
+$2,203
+6.8% on $32,297 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,297
Put floors you at $300
Break-even
$322.97
+2.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.55 / -8.73 / 45.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | -$2,425 | -$2,419 | -$2,378 | -$2,297 |
| $268 (-15%) | -$2,196 | -$2,275 | -$2,335 | -$2,297 |
| $284 (-10%) | -$1,748 | -$1,913 | -$2,123 | -$2,297 |
| $300 (-5%) | -$1,027 | -$1,237 | -$1,536 | -$2,297 |
| $309 (-2%) | -$461 | -$671 | -$960 | -$1,396 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | -$33 | -$232 | -$492 | -$765 |
| $322 (+2%) | +$432 | +$250 | +$29 | -$134 |
| $331 (+5%) | +$1,187 | +$1,037 | +$881 | +$812 |
| $345 (+9%) โ target | +$2,397 | +$2,298 | +$2,219 | +$2,203 |
| $363 (+15%) | +$4,043 | +$3,993 | +$3,967 | +$3,965 |
| $378 (+20%) | +$5,573 | +$5,549 | +$5,541 | +$5,541 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.