Target Price Playground
AMZN
$245.34
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.4% โ LOW
(-32.3% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $245 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.65 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $265 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.7 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $275 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,205 (151.6%) on $795 risked, vs +$2,966 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $24,534. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $275 by Sep 18
+$1,205
+151.6% on $795 risked
Max Profit
+$1,205
If the stock โฅ $265 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$795
Net debit
Break-even
$252.95
+3.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
18.33 / -1.22 / 3.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | -$689 | -$743 | -$788 | -$795 |
| $209 (-15%) | -$584 | -$661 | -$757 | -$795 |
| $221 (-10%) | -$430 | -$515 | -$658 | -$795 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$233 | -$302 | -$446 | -$795 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$101 | -$149 | -$259 | -$795 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | -$40 | -$115 | -$761 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$84 | +$72 | +$39 | -$270 |
| $258 (+5%) | +$223 | +$240 | +$273 | +$466 |
| $270 (+10%) | +$441 | +$503 | +$629 | +$1,205 |
| $275 (+12%) โ target | +$526 | +$601 | +$752 | +$1,205 |
| $282 (+15%) | +$633 | +$724 | +$892 | +$1,205 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$791 | +$892 | +$1,054 | +$1,205 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.