Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $570 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $510 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $67.5 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $570 by Sep 18: the long call returns $-750 (-11.1%) on $6,750 risked, vs +$6,302 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $50,698. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $570. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $570 by Sep 18
$-750
-11.1% on $6,750 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$6,750
Premium paid
Break-even
$577.50
+13.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.62 / -51.09 / 86.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | -$4,600 | -$5,399 | -$6,271 | -$6,750 |
| $431 (-15%) | -$3,749 | -$4,694 | -$5,831 | -$6,750 |
| $456 (-10%) | -$2,724 | -$3,791 | -$5,160 | -$6,750 |
| $482 (-5%) | -$1,529 | -$2,685 | -$4,226 | -$6,750 |
| $497 (-2%) | -$732 | -$1,926 | -$3,532 | -$6,750 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | -$169 | -$1,380 | -$3,016 | -$6,750 |
| $517 (+2%) | +$418 | -$805 | -$2,456 | -$6,038 |
| $532 (+5%) | +$1,344 | +$112 | -$1,540 | -$4,517 |
| $558 (+10%) | +$2,998 | +$1,776 | +$177 | -$1,982 |
| $570 (+12%) โ target | +$3,849 | +$2,641 | +$1,088 | -$750 |
| $583 (+15%) | +$4,779 | +$3,593 | +$2,099 | +$553 |
| $608 (+20%) | +$6,674 | +$5,543 | +$4,188 | +$3,088 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.