Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $570 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $506.98 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $570 by Sep 18: the long stock returns +$6,302 (12.4%) on $50,698 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Sep 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $570 by Sep 18
+$6,302
+12.4% on $50,698 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$50,698
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$506.98
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 11 | Sep 10 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | -$10,140 | -$10,140 | -$10,140 |
| $431 (-15%) | -$7,605 | -$7,605 | -$7,605 |
| $456 (-10%) | -$5,070 | -$5,070 | -$5,070 |
| $482 (-5%) | -$2,535 | -$2,535 | -$2,535 |
| $497 (-2%) | -$1,014 | -$1,014 | -$1,014 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $517 (+2%) | +$1,014 | +$1,014 | +$1,014 |
| $532 (+5%) | +$2,535 | +$2,535 | +$2,535 |
| $558 (+10%) | +$5,070 | +$5,070 | +$5,070 |
| $570 (+12%) โ target | +$6,302 | +$6,302 | +$6,302 |
| $583 (+15%) | +$7,605 | +$7,605 | +$7,605 |
| $608 (+20%) | +$10,140 | +$10,140 | +$10,140 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.