Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $560 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $506.98 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $480 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $47.08 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $560 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$594 (1.1%) on $55,406 risked, vs +$5,302 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $50,698. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $560 by Sep 18
+$594
+1.1% on $55,406 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$7,406
Put floors you at $480
Break-even
$554.06
+9.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.42 / -42.88 / 83.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | -$4,982 | -$5,743 | -$6,677 | -$7,406 |
| $431 (-15%) | -$3,952 | -$4,833 | -$5,998 | -$7,406 |
| $456 (-10%) | -$2,741 | -$3,708 | -$5,038 | -$7,406 |
| $482 (-5%) | -$1,357 | -$2,373 | -$3,785 | -$7,243 |
| $497 (-2%) | -$448 | -$1,477 | -$2,898 | -$5,722 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | +$188 | -$842 | -$2,254 | -$4,708 |
| $517 (+2%) | +$848 | -$179 | -$1,570 | -$3,694 |
| $532 (+5%) | +$1,879 | +$867 | -$476 | -$2,173 |
| $560 (+10%) โ target | +$3,874 | +$2,909 | +$1,698 | +$594 |
| $583 (+15%) | +$5,638 | +$4,730 | +$3,653 | +$2,897 |
| $608 (+20%) | +$7,674 | +$6,840 | +$5,921 | +$5,432 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.