Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $510 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $65.2 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $465 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $42.01 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $445 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,181 (94.0%) on $2,319 risked, vs $-6,198 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $50,698. Options give 7.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $445 by Sep 18
+$2,181
+94.0% on $2,319 risked
Max Profit
+$2,181
If the stock โค $465 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,319
Net debit
Break-even
$486.81
-3.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.24 / -5.16 / 7.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | +$1,064 | +$1,203 | +$1,502 | +$2,181 |
| $431 (-15%) | +$788 | +$884 | +$1,116 | +$2,181 |
| $445 (-12%) โ target | +$631 | +$696 | +$870 | +$2,181 |
| $456 (-10%) | +$503 | +$543 | +$662 | +$2,181 |
| $482 (-5%) | +$217 | +$194 | +$175 | +$518 |
| $497 (-2%) | +$48 | -$12 | -$117 | -$1,003 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | -$63 | -$146 | -$306 | -$2,017 |
| $517 (+2%) | -$171 | -$278 | -$489 | -$2,319 |
| $532 (+5%) | -$329 | -$468 | -$749 | -$2,319 |
| $558 (+10%) | -$578 | -$764 | -$1,133 | -$2,319 |
| $583 (+15%) | -$807 | -$1,028 | -$1,449 | -$2,319 |
| $608 (+20%) | -$1,014 | -$1,260 | -$1,697 | -$2,319 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.