Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $570 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $510 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $67.5 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $550 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $51.2 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $570 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$2,370 (145.4%) on $1,630 risked, vs +$6,302 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $50,698. Options give 11.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $570. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $570 by Sep 18
+$2,370
+145.4% on $1,630 risked
Max Profit
+$2,370
If the stock โฅ $550 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,630
Net debit
Break-even
$526.30
+3.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.23 / -1.43 / -3.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | -$960 | -$1,100 | -$1,357 | -$1,630 |
| $431 (-15%) | -$757 | -$881 | -$1,146 | -$1,630 |
| $456 (-10%) | -$537 | -$631 | -$860 | -$1,630 |
| $482 (-5%) | -$306 | -$358 | -$512 | -$1,630 |
| $497 (-2%) | -$166 | -$189 | -$282 | -$1,630 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | -$72 | -$75 | -$123 | -$1,630 |
| $517 (+2%) | +$22 | +$39 | +$37 | -$918 |
| $532 (+5%) | +$161 | +$209 | +$278 | +$603 |
| $558 (+10%) | +$387 | +$485 | +$666 | +$2,370 |
| $570 (+12%) โ target | +$494 | +$613 | +$844 | +$2,370 |
| $583 (+15%) | +$603 | +$745 | +$1,021 | +$2,370 |
| $608 (+20%) | +$805 | +$984 | +$1,329 | +$2,370 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.