Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $510 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $75.7 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $480 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $47.08 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $480 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,795 (97.7%) on $2,862 risked, vs $-2,698 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $50,698. Options give 18.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $480. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $480 by Sep 18
+$2,795
+97.7% on $2,862 risked
Max Profit
+$2,775
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$2,255
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$542.15
+6.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.19 / 6.73 / 17.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | +$195 | +$369 | +$627 | +$627 |
| $431 (-15%) | +$142 | +$342 | +$692 | +$1,142 |
| $456 (-10%) | +$58 | +$267 | +$668 | +$1,881 |
| $480 (-5%) โ target | -$46 | +$156 | +$556 | +$2,796 |
| $497 (-2%) | -$132 | +$55 | +$427 | +$1,895 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | -$188 | -$13 | +$333 | +$1,406 |
| $517 (+2%) | -$247 | -$86 | +$227 | +$955 |
| $532 (+5%) | -$341 | -$203 | +$52 | +$349 |
| $558 (+10%) | -$506 | -$414 | -$272 | -$489 |
| $583 (+15%) | -$678 | -$636 | -$612 | -$1,137 |
| $608 (+20%) | -$852 | -$861 | -$946 | -$1,628 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.