Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $510 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $65.2 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $445 by Sep 18: the long put returns $-20 (-0.3%) on $6,520 risked, vs $-6,198 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $50,698.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $445 by Sep 18
$-20
-0.3% on $6,520 risked
Max Profit
+$44,480
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$6,520
Premium paid
Break-even
$444.80
-12.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.71 / -46.08 / 86.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | +$5,646 | +$4,984 | +$4,256 | +$3,922 |
| $431 (-15%) | +$3,962 | +$3,154 | +$2,161 | +$1,387 |
| $445 (-12%) โ target | +$3,103 | +$2,224 | +$1,096 | -$20 |
| $456 (-10%) | +$2,452 | +$1,522 | +$297 | -$1,148 |
| $482 (-5%) | +$1,113 | +$93 | -$1,303 | -$3,683 |
| $497 (-2%) | +$388 | -$668 | -$2,131 | -$5,204 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | -$63 | -$1,137 | -$2,628 | -$6,218 |
| $517 (+2%) | -$490 | -$1,576 | -$3,082 | -$6,520 |
| $532 (+5%) | -$1,085 | -$2,179 | -$3,687 | -$6,520 |
| $558 (+10%) | -$1,966 | -$3,050 | -$4,505 | -$6,520 |
| $583 (+15%) | -$2,719 | -$3,768 | -$5,118 | -$6,520 |
| $608 (+20%) | -$3,360 | -$4,354 | -$5,564 | -$6,520 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.