Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $580 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $510 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $67.5 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $510 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $65.2 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $580 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns $-6,270 (-47.2%) on $13,270 risked, vs +$7,302 (14.4%) for 100 shares on $50,698. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $580. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $580 by Sep 18
$-6,270
-47.2% on $13,270 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$13,270
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$377.30
-25.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.92 / -97.17 / 173.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | +$1,046 | -$415 | -$2,015 | -$2,828 |
| $431 (-15%) | +$214 | -$1,540 | -$3,670 | -$5,363 |
| $456 (-10%) | -$272 | -$2,269 | -$4,863 | -$7,898 |
| $482 (-5%) | -$416 | -$2,592 | -$5,528 | -$10,433 |
| $497 (-2%) | -$344 | -$2,594 | -$5,663 | -$11,954 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | -$232 | -$2,517 | -$5,644 | -$12,968 |
| $517 (+2%) | -$71 | -$2,381 | -$5,538 | -$12,558 |
| $532 (+5%) | +$259 | -$2,067 | -$5,227 | -$11,037 |
| $558 (+10%) | +$1,032 | -$1,274 | -$4,328 | -$8,502 |
| $580 (+14%) โ target | +$1,925 | -$322 | -$3,195 | -$6,270 |
| $608 (+20%) | +$3,315 | +$1,189 | -$1,376 | -$3,432 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.