Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ASML
$1,917.01
๐ŸŸข
ASML IV: 56.3% โ€” LOW (-28.9% vs 30d avg of 79.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $1690 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

64d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $1920 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $182.82 ยท ฮ” -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $1760 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $116.84 ยท ฮ” -0.31
P&L at Expiry Now $1917 Target $1690 $1342 $1917 $2492
Stock (100 sh) Bear Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If ASML hits $1690 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$9,402 (142.5%) on $6,598 risked, vs $-22,701 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $191,701. Options give 12.1ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $1690. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if ASML hits $1690 by Aug 21
+$9,402
+142.5% on $6,598 risked
Max Profit
+$9,402
If the stock โ‰ค $1760 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$6,598
Net debit
Break-even
$1854.02
-3.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-13.93 / -12.91 / 15.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

ASML Price Today Jul 9 Jul 30 Aug 21 (exp)
$1534 (-20%) +$6,143 +$6,799 +$7,928 +$9,402
$1629 (-15%) +$4,897 +$5,420 +$6,470 +$9,402
$1690 (-12%) โ† target +$4,046 +$4,426 +$5,253 +$9,402
$1725 (-10%) +$3,535 +$3,817 +$4,461 +$9,402
$1821 (-5%) +$2,135 +$2,119 +$2,141 +$3,286
$1879 (-2%) +$1,306 +$1,107 +$735 -$2,465
$1917 (0%) โ† spot +$768 +$452 -$166 -$6,299
$1955 (+2%) +$243 -$181 -$1,019 -$6,598
$2013 (+5%) -$510 -$1,078 -$2,183 -$6,598
$2109 (+10%) -$1,658 -$2,404 -$3,761 -$6,598
$2205 (+15%) -$2,657 -$3,500 -$4,884 -$6,598
$2300 (+20%) -$3,502 -$4,366 -$5,619 -$6,598
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.