Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ASML
$1,929.68
๐ŸŸข
ASML IV: 56.3% โ€” LOW (-28.9% vs 30d avg of 79.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $1830 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

64d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $1930 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $205.08 ยท ฮ” -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $1830 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $124.47 ยท ฮ” -0.35
P&L at Expiry Now $1930 Target $1830 $1351 $1930 $2509
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If ASML hits $1830 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$8,854 (109.8%) on $8,061 risked, vs $-9,968 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $192,968. Options give 21.1ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $1830. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if ASML hits $1830 by Aug 21
+$8,854
+109.8% on $8,061 risked
Max Profit
+$8,789
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$7,442
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$2018.81
+4.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-7.49 / 18.53 / 79.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

ASML Price Today Jul 9 Jul 30 Aug 21 (exp)
$1544 (-20%) +$1,796 +$2,244 +$2,724 +$2,235
$1640 (-15%) +$1,589 +$2,181 +$3,059 +$3,485
$1737 (-10%) +$1,210 +$1,866 +$3,005 +$5,659
$1830 (-5%) โ† target +$691 +$1,314 +$2,466 +$8,855
$1891 (-2%) +$282 +$836 +$1,860 +$5,472
$1930 (0%) โ† spot +$0 +$495 +$1,391 +$3,596
$1968 (+2%) -$296 +$129 +$870 +$1,916
$2026 (+5%) -$760 -$455 +$18 -$255
$2123 (+10%) -$1,568 -$1,480 -$1,479 -$3,030
$2219 (+15%) -$2,382 -$2,507 -$2,920 -$4,934
$2316 (+20%) -$3,170 -$3,477 -$4,188 -$6,183
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.