Target Price Playground
ASML
$1,834.10
🟢
ASML IV: 43.6% — LOW
(-35.7% vs 30d avg of 67.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1980 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1834.1 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $1980 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $88.5 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ASML hits $1980 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$23,440 (13.4%) on $174,560 risked, vs +$14,590 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $183,410. Options give 1.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $1980. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ASML hits $1980 by Dec 18
+$23,440
+13.4% on $174,560 risked
Max Profit
+$23,440
If the stock ≥ $1980 at expiry
Max Loss
−$174,560
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$1745.60
-4.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
62.12 / 95.94 / -296.56
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ASML Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1467 (-20%) | -$29,240 | -$28,377 | -$27,885 | -$27,832 |
| $1559 (-15%) | -$21,285 | -$19,916 | -$18,884 | -$18,662 |
| $1651 (-10%) | -$13,954 | -$12,017 | -$10,202 | -$9,491 |
| $1742 (-5%) | -$7,365 | -$4,877 | -$2,148 | -$321 |
| $1797 (-2%) | -$3,799 | -$1,022 | +$2,232 | +$5,182 |
| $1834 (0%) ← spot | -$1,590 | +$1,352 | +$4,918 | +$8,850 |
| $1871 (+2%) | +$486 | +$3,567 | +$7,399 | +$12,518 |
| $1926 (+5%) | +$3,348 | +$6,586 | +$10,710 | +$18,021 |
| $1980 (+8%) ← target | +$5,878 | +$9,207 | +$13,479 | +$23,440 |
| $2018 (+10%) | +$7,468 | +$10,822 | +$15,113 | +$23,440 |
| $2109 (+15%) | +$10,829 | +$14,127 | +$18,209 | +$23,440 |
| $2201 (+20%) | +$13,513 | +$16,620 | +$20,228 | +$23,440 |
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.