Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.44
๐ข
BKNG IV: 5.6% โ LOW
(-90.5% vs 30d avg of 58.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.4 ยท ฮ -0.6
SHORT PUT ยท $160 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.69 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $155 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$829 (123.5%) on $671 risked, vs $-1,844 (-10.6%) for 100 shares on $17,344. Options give 11.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $155 by Aug 21
+$829
+123.5% on $671 risked
Max Profit
+$829
If the stock โค $160 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$671
Net debit
Break-even
$168.29
-2.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-26.98 / -1.56 / 0.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | +$817 | +$821 | +$825 | +$829 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$817 | +$821 | +$825 | +$829 |
| $155 (-11%) โ target | +$787 | +$809 | +$824 | +$829 |
| $165 (-5%) | +$207 | +$255 | +$304 | +$352 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$266 | -$243 | -$213 | -$168 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$499 | -$504 | -$512 | -$515 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$621 | -$633 | -$650 | -$671 |
| $182 (+5%) | -$668 | -$670 | -$671 | -$671 |
| $191 (+10%) | -$671 | -$671 | -$671 | -$671 |
| $199 (+15%) | -$671 | -$671 | -$671 | -$671 |
| $208 (+20%) | -$671 | -$671 | -$671 | -$671 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.