Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.44
๐ข
BKNG IV: 5.6% โ LOW
(-90.5% vs 30d avg of 58.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.3 ยท ฮ -0.62
SHORT PUT ยท $165 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.5 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $165 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$497 (85.7%) on $580 risked, vs $-844 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $17,344. Options give 17.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $165 by Aug 21
+$497
+85.7% on $580 risked
Max Profit
+$483
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$580
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$172.41
-0.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
4%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-21.04 / 0.98 / 4.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | +$352 | +$355 | +$357 | +$360 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$352 | +$355 | +$357 | +$360 |
| $156 (-10%) | +$349 | +$354 | +$357 | +$360 |
| $165 (-5%) โ target | +$134 | +$183 | +$243 | +$360 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$206 | -$185 | -$161 | -$132 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$406 | -$407 | -$411 | -$418 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$520 | -$527 | -$538 | -$554 |
| $182 (+5%) | -$573 | -$576 | -$578 | -$580 |
| $191 (+10%) | -$580 | -$580 | -$580 | -$580 |
| $199 (+15%) | -$580 | -$580 | -$580 | -$580 |
| $208 (+20%) | -$580 | -$580 | -$580 | -$580 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.