Target Price Playground
BKNG
$171.78
๐ข
BKNG IV: 5.6% โ LOW
(-90.5% vs 30d avg of 58.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.41 ยท ฮ -0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $150 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$1,059 (112.5%) on $941 risked, vs $-2,178 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $17,178. Options give 8.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $150 by Aug 21
+$1,059
+112.5% on $941 risked
Max Profit
+$16,059
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$941
Premium paid
Break-even
$160.59
-6.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-49.74 / -10.96 / 28.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | +$2,183 | +$2,227 | +$2,271 | +$2,317 |
| $146 (-15%) | +$1,324 | +$1,368 | +$1,412 | +$1,458 |
| $150 (-13%) โ target | +$925 | +$969 | +$1,013 | +$1,059 |
| $155 (-10%) | +$465 | +$509 | +$553 | +$599 |
| $163 (-5%) | -$380 | -$346 | -$306 | -$260 |
| $168 (-2%) | -$766 | -$770 | -$776 | -$775 |
| $172 (0%) โ spot | -$891 | -$903 | -$920 | -$941 |
| $175 (+2%) | -$932 | -$937 | -$940 | -$941 |
| $180 (+5%) | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 |
| $189 (+10%) | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 |
| $198 (+15%) | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 |
| $206 (+20%) | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 | -$941 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.