Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.44
๐ข
BKNG IV: 5.6% โ LOW
(-90.5% vs 30d avg of 58.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $173.44 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $165 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.5 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $190 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$907 (5.0%) on $18,094 risked, vs +$1,657 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $17,344. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $190 by Aug 21
+$907
+5.0% on $18,094 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,594
Put floors you at $165
Break-even
$180.94
+4.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.26 / -10.64 / 25.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | -$1,724 | -$1,681 | -$1,639 | -$1,594 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$1,724 | -$1,681 | -$1,639 | -$1,594 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$1,721 | -$1,681 | -$1,639 | -$1,594 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$1,511 | -$1,520 | -$1,537 | -$1,594 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$1,088 | -$1,093 | -$1,096 | -$1,097 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$749 | -$750 | -$750 | -$750 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$403 | -$403 | -$403 | -$403 |
| $182 (+5%) | +$117 | +$117 | +$117 | +$117 |
| $190 (+10%) โ target | +$906 | +$906 | +$906 | +$906 |
| $199 (+15%) | +$1,852 | +$1,852 | +$1,852 | +$1,852 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$2,719 | +$2,719 | +$2,719 | +$2,719 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.