Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.44
๐ข
BKNG IV: 5.6% โ LOW
(-90.5% vs 30d avg of 58.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $175 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.75 ยท ฮ 0.48
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.4 ยท ฮ -0.6
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $200 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$85 (3.5%) on $2,415 risked, vs +$2,657 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $17,344. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $200 by Aug 21
+$85
+3.5% on $2,415 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,415
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$150.85
-13.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.03 / -19.3 / 54.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | +$1,072 | +$1,117 | +$1,163 | +$1,210 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$205 | +$250 | +$296 | +$343 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$663 | -$618 | -$572 | -$525 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$1,526 | -$1,484 | -$1,439 | -$1,392 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$1,969 | -$1,970 | -$1,954 | -$1,912 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$2,090 | -$2,143 | -$2,205 | -$2,259 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$1,987 | -$2,056 | -$2,135 | -$2,224 |
| $182 (+5%) | -$1,560 | -$1,609 | -$1,656 | -$1,704 |
| $191 (+10%) | -$699 | -$744 | -$790 | -$837 |
| $200 (+15%) โ target | +$223 | +$178 | +$132 | +$85 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$1,036 | +$991 | +$945 | +$898 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.