Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.20
๐ข
BKNG IV: 5.6% โ LOW
(-90.4% vs 30d avg of 58.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $173.2 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $185 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.75 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $185 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$1,955 (11.8%) on $16,545 risked, vs +$1,180 (6.8%) for 100 shares on $17,320. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $185 by Aug 21
+$1,955
+11.8% on $16,545 risked
Max Profit
+$1,955
If the stock โฅ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$16,545
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$165.45
-4.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
0%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.93 / 7.71 / -27.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | -$2,689 | -$2,689 | -$2,689 | -$2,689 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$1,823 | -$1,823 | -$1,823 | -$1,823 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$957 | -$957 | -$957 | -$957 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$91 | -$91 | -$91 | -$91 |
| $170 (-2%) | +$429 | +$429 | +$429 | +$429 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | +$774 | +$775 | +$775 | +$775 |
| $177 (+2%) | +$1,112 | +$1,119 | +$1,121 | +$1,121 |
| $182 (+5%) | +$1,541 | +$1,583 | +$1,622 | +$1,641 |
| $185 (+7%) โ target | +$1,700 | +$1,759 | +$1,826 | +$1,955 |
| $191 (+10%) | +$1,799 | +$1,852 | +$1,904 | +$1,955 |
| $199 (+15%) | +$1,810 | +$1,857 | +$1,905 | +$1,955 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$1,810 | +$1,857 | +$1,905 | +$1,955 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.