Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CEG hits $290 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$1,060 (4.4%) on $-1,060 credit (max loss $23,940), vs +$1,594 (5.8%) for 100 shares on $27,406. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CEG is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CEG Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $219 (-20%) | -$2,686 | -$2,446 | -$2,178 | -$2,015 |
| $233 (-15%) | -$1,825 | -$1,520 | -$1,134 | -$645 |
| $247 (-10%) | -$1,112 | -$770 | -$315 | +$725 |
| $260 (-5%) | -$539 | -$191 | +$265 | +$1,060 |
| $269 (-2%) | -$258 | +$81 | +$510 | +$1,060 |
| $274 (0%) โ spot | -$94 | +$234 | +$636 | +$1,060 |
| $280 (+2%) | +$52 | +$367 | +$737 | +$1,060 |
| $290 (+6%) โ target | +$289 | +$571 | +$874 | +$1,060 |
| $301 (+10%) | +$491 | +$732 | +$964 | +$1,060 |
| $315 (+15%) | +$670 | +$862 | +$1,018 | +$1,060 |
| $329 (+20%) | +$796 | +$943 | +$1,043 | +$1,060 |