Target Price Playground
CSX
$49.41
๐ข
CSX IV: 26.5% โ LOW
(-59.0% vs 30d avg of 64.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $55 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $49 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.69 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CSX hits $55 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$331 (123.0%) on $269 risked, vs +$559 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $4,941. Options give 10.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CSX is at $55. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CSX hits $55 by Sep 18
+$331
+123.0% on $269 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$269
Premium paid
Break-even
$51.69
+4.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.02 / -1.96 / 8.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CSX Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40 (-20%) | -$262 | -$267 | -$269 | -$269 |
| $42 (-15%) | -$243 | -$258 | -$268 | -$269 |
| $44 (-10%) | -$201 | -$229 | -$258 | -$269 |
| $47 (-5%) | -$122 | -$163 | -$214 | -$269 |
| $48 (-2%) | -$54 | -$100 | -$160 | -$269 |
| $49 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$47 | -$108 | -$228 |
| $50 (+2%) | +$61 | +$14 | -$45 | -$129 |
| $52 (+5%) | +$163 | +$120 | +$67 | +$19 |
| $54 (+10%) | +$359 | +$324 | +$288 | +$266 |
| $55 (+11%) โ target | +$415 | +$382 | +$350 | +$331 |
| $57 (+15%) | +$578 | +$552 | +$528 | +$513 |
| $59 (+20%) | +$812 | +$791 | +$774 | +$760 |
Uses CSX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.