Target Price Playground
GILD
$129.83
๐ข
GILD IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 50.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.35 ยท ฮ 0.53
SHORT CALL ยท $140 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.32 ยท ฮ 0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $145 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$597 (148.1%) on $403 risked, vs +$1,517 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $145 by Sep 18
+$597
+148.1% on $403 risked
Max Profit
+$597
If the stock โฅ $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$403
Net debit
Break-even
$134.03
+3.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
21.47 / -0.84 / 1.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | -$383 | -$396 | -$403 | -$403 |
| $110 (-15%) | -$346 | -$375 | -$399 | -$403 |
| $117 (-10%) | -$274 | -$317 | -$374 | -$403 |
| $123 (-5%) | -$164 | -$207 | -$284 | -$403 |
| $127 (-2%) | -$83 | -$116 | -$184 | -$403 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | -$24 | -$47 | -$98 | -$403 |
| $132 (+2%) | +$36 | +$24 | -$2 | -$160 |
| $136 (+5%) | +$125 | +$133 | +$148 | +$229 |
| $143 (+10%) | +$264 | +$298 | +$366 | +$597 |
| $145 (+12%) โ target | +$305 | +$345 | +$422 | +$597 |
| $149 (+15%) | +$377 | +$424 | +$502 | +$597 |
| $156 (+20%) | +$460 | +$505 | +$565 | +$597 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.