Target Price Playground
GILD
$129.83
๐ข
GILD IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 50.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.02 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.69 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $125 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$443 (189.8%) on $233 risked, vs $-483 (-3.7%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 51.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $125 by Sep 18
+$443
+189.8% on $233 risked
Max Profit
+$442
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$233
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$134.15
+3.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.75 / 1.53 / 4.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | +$227 | +$232 | +$230 | +$223 |
| $110 (-15%) | +$220 | +$236 | +$247 | +$231 |
| $117 (-10%) | +$196 | +$222 | +$258 | +$269 |
| $123 (-5%) | +$150 | +$176 | +$225 | +$391 |
| $125 (-4%) โ target | +$135 | +$159 | +$206 | +$443 |
| $127 (-2%) | +$112 | +$134 | +$174 | +$306 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | +$85 | +$101 | +$129 | +$170 |
| $132 (+2%) | +$56 | +$66 | +$80 | +$60 |
| $136 (+5%) | +$12 | +$12 | +$4 | -$61 |
| $143 (+10%) | -$57 | -$72 | -$102 | -$173 |
| $149 (+15%) | -$115 | -$136 | -$171 | -$215 |
| $156 (+20%) | -$159 | -$180 | -$207 | -$229 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.