Target Price Playground
GILD
$129.83
๐ข
GILD IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 50.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.35 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $145 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$765 (104.1%) on $735 risked, vs +$1,517 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 8.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $145 by Sep 18
+$765
+104.1% on $735 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$735
Premium paid
Break-even
$137.35
+5.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.29 / -5.35 / 22.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | -$710 | -$728 | -$735 | -$735 |
| $110 (-15%) | -$657 | -$701 | -$731 | -$735 |
| $117 (-10%) | -$544 | -$625 | -$704 | -$735 |
| $123 (-5%) | -$343 | -$458 | -$599 | -$735 |
| $127 (-2%) | -$174 | -$302 | -$469 | -$735 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | -$40 | -$172 | -$347 | -$735 |
| $132 (+2%) | +$110 | -$23 | -$197 | -$492 |
| $136 (+5%) | +$364 | +$236 | +$75 | -$103 |
| $143 (+10%) | +$854 | +$745 | +$626 | +$546 |
| $145 (+12%) โ target | +$1,035 | +$933 | +$829 | +$765 |
| $149 (+15%) | +$1,408 | +$1,322 | +$1,242 | +$1,195 |
| $156 (+20%) | +$2,005 | +$1,939 | +$1,884 | +$1,845 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.