Target Price Playground
GILD
$129.83
๐ข
GILD IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 50.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $120 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.04 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $115 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$624 (166.0%) on $376 risked, vs $-1,483 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 14.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $115 by Sep 18
+$624
+166.0% on $376 risked
Max Profit
+$624
If the stock โค $120 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$376
Net debit
Break-even
$126.24
-2.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.93 / -0.9 / 3.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | +$542 | +$578 | +$613 | +$624 |
| $110 (-15%) | +$451 | +$498 | +$569 | +$624 |
| $115 (-11%) โ target | +$359 | +$402 | +$482 | +$624 |
| $117 (-10%) | +$317 | +$356 | +$430 | +$624 |
| $123 (-5%) | +$159 | +$169 | +$189 | +$290 |
| $127 (-2%) | +$63 | +$53 | +$30 | -$99 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | +$2 | -$20 | -$68 | -$359 |
| $132 (+2%) | -$55 | -$87 | -$152 | -$376 |
| $136 (+5%) | -$131 | -$172 | -$248 | -$376 |
| $143 (+10%) | -$230 | -$273 | -$336 | -$376 |
| $149 (+15%) | -$295 | -$330 | -$366 | -$376 |
| $156 (+20%) | -$335 | -$358 | -$374 | -$376 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.