Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $135 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$304 (2.6%) on $-304 credit (max loss $11,696), vs +$517 (4.0%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | -$1,309 | -$1,290 | -$1,284 | -$1,310 |
| $110 (-15%) | -$803 | -$746 | -$683 | -$660 |
| $117 (-10%) | -$400 | -$316 | -$199 | -$11 |
| $123 (-5%) | -$110 | -$20 | +$104 | +$304 |
| $127 (-2%) | +$14 | +$97 | +$203 | +$304 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | +$79 | +$154 | +$244 | +$304 |
| $132 (+2%) | +$131 | +$198 | +$269 | +$304 |
| $135 (+4%) โ target | +$173 | +$230 | +$285 | +$304 |
| $136 (+5%) | +$190 | +$243 | +$290 | +$304 |
| $143 (+10%) | +$251 | +$282 | +$302 | +$304 |
| $149 (+15%) | +$280 | +$297 | +$304 | +$304 |
| $156 (+20%) | +$294 | +$302 | +$304 | +$304 |