Target Price Playground
GILD
$129.83
๐ข
GILD IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 50.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $115 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$820 (120.6%) on $680 risked, vs $-1,483 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 10.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $115 by Sep 18
+$820
+120.6% on $680 risked
Max Profit
+$12,320
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$680
Premium paid
Break-even
$123.20
-5.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.48 / -5.03 / 22.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | +$1,851 | +$1,868 | +$1,897 | +$1,934 |
| $110 (-15%) | +$1,253 | +$1,244 | +$1,251 | +$1,284 |
| $115 (-11%) โ target | +$862 | +$828 | +$802 | +$820 |
| $117 (-10%) | +$718 | +$672 | +$630 | +$635 |
| $123 (-5%) | +$269 | +$189 | +$85 | -$14 |
| $127 (-2%) | +$49 | -$44 | -$173 | -$403 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | -$77 | -$174 | -$312 | -$663 |
| $132 (+2%) | -$186 | -$284 | -$422 | -$680 |
| $136 (+5%) | -$321 | -$415 | -$539 | -$680 |
| $143 (+10%) | -$481 | -$555 | -$637 | -$680 |
| $149 (+15%) | -$576 | -$627 | -$670 | -$680 |
| $156 (+20%) | -$629 | -$659 | -$678 | -$680 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.