Target Price Playground
GILD
$129.83
๐ข
GILD IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 50.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.35 ยท ฮ 0.53
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $150 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$585 (41.3%) on $1,415 risked, vs +$2,017 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $150 by Sep 18
+$585
+41.3% on $1,415 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,415
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$115.85
-10.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
22%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
6.82 / -10.38 / 44.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | +$1,141 | +$1,140 | +$1,163 | +$1,199 |
| $110 (-15%) | +$596 | +$543 | +$521 | +$549 |
| $117 (-10%) | +$174 | +$47 | -$74 | -$100 |
| $123 (-5%) | -$74 | -$269 | -$513 | -$749 |
| $127 (-2%) | -$125 | -$346 | -$642 | -$1,138 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | -$117 | -$346 | -$659 | -$1,398 |
| $132 (+2%) | -$76 | -$307 | -$619 | -$1,172 |
| $136 (+5%) | +$43 | -$179 | -$463 | -$783 |
| $143 (+10%) | +$373 | +$190 | -$11 | -$134 |
| $150 (+16%) โ target | +$887 | +$755 | +$639 | +$585 |
| $156 (+20%) | +$1,376 | +$1,280 | +$1,206 | +$1,165 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.