Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If INTC hits $140 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$1,485 (13.5%) on $-1,485 credit (max loss $11,015), vs +$598 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $13,403. Options give 3.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if INTC is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| INTC Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $107 (-20%) | -$1,069 | -$841 | -$564 | -$293 |
| $114 (-15%) | -$690 | -$432 | -$102 | +$378 |
| $121 (-10%) | -$358 | -$79 | +$287 | +$1,048 |
| $127 (-5%) | -$68 | +$221 | +$602 | +$1,485 |
| $131 (-2%) | +$87 | +$378 | +$759 | +$1,485 |
| $134 (0%) โ spot | +$182 | +$473 | +$850 | +$1,485 |
| $137 (+2%) | +$272 | +$561 | +$932 | +$1,485 |
| $140 (+4%) โ target | +$374 | +$660 | +$1,020 | +$1,485 |
| $147 (+10%) | +$578 | +$851 | +$1,176 | +$1,485 |
| $154 (+15%) | +$732 | +$988 | +$1,276 | +$1,485 |
| $161 (+20%) | +$862 | +$1,098 | +$1,346 | +$1,485 |