Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $275 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$2,270 (10.4%) on $-2,270 credit (max loss $21,730), vs +$1,381 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $26,119. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $209 (-20%) | -$2,198 | -$1,798 | -$1,313 | -$835 |
| $222 (-15%) | -$1,460 | -$1,005 | -$419 | +$471 |
| $235 (-10%) | -$820 | -$330 | +$318 | +$1,777 |
| $248 (-5%) | -$271 | +$233 | +$897 | +$2,270 |
| $256 (-2%) | +$17 | +$521 | +$1,175 | +$2,270 |
| $261 (0%) โ spot | +$193 | +$693 | +$1,334 | +$2,270 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$357 | +$851 | +$1,473 | +$2,270 |
| $275 (+5%) โ target | +$602 | +$1,081 | +$1,664 | +$2,270 |
| $287 (+10%) | +$905 | +$1,355 | +$1,869 | +$2,270 |
| $300 (+15%) | +$1,171 | +$1,582 | +$2,017 | +$2,270 |
| $313 (+20%) | +$1,388 | +$1,757 | +$2,114 | +$2,270 |