Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $250 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,472 (140.1%) on $1,051 risked, vs $-1,119 (-4.3%) for 100 shares on $26,119. Options give 32.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $209 (-20%) | +$122 | +$197 | +$294 | +$228 |
| $222 (-15%) | +$127 | +$222 | +$373 | +$509 |
| $235 (-10%) | +$116 | +$222 | +$411 | +$910 |
| $250 (-4%) โ target | +$85 | +$192 | +$392 | +$1,529 |
| $256 (-2%) | +$68 | +$172 | +$366 | +$1,227 |
| $261 (0%) โ spot | +$50 | +$150 | +$335 | +$986 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$31 | +$126 | +$298 | +$764 |
| $274 (+5%) | -$1 | +$84 | +$232 | +$467 |
| $287 (+10%) | -$62 | +$3 | +$101 | +$60 |
| $300 (+15%) | -$128 | -$87 | -$45 | -$252 |
| $313 (+20%) | -$198 | -$181 | -$192 | -$485 |