Target Price Playground
META
$669.21
๐ข
META IV: 43.0% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 56.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $670 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $54.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $620 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.7 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $590 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,820 (129.4%) on $2,180 risked, vs $-7,921 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $66,921. Options give 11.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $590 by Sep 18
+$2,820
+129.4% on $2,180 risked
Max Profit
+$2,820
If the stock โค $620 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,180
Net debit
Break-even
$648.20
-3.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.07 / -3.51 / 5.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $535 (-20%) | +$2,033 | +$2,253 | +$2,584 | +$2,820 |
| $569 (-15%) | +$1,599 | +$1,803 | +$2,188 | +$2,820 |
| $590 (-12%) โ target | +$1,283 | +$1,446 | +$1,788 | +$2,820 |
| $602 (-10%) | +$1,089 | +$1,220 | +$1,507 | +$2,820 |
| $636 (-5%) | +$543 | +$565 | +$621 | +$1,245 |
| $656 (-2%) | +$218 | +$169 | +$67 | -$763 |
| $669 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | -$86 | -$286 | -$2,101 |
| $683 (+2%) | -$196 | -$329 | -$613 | -$2,180 |
| $703 (+5%) | -$484 | -$667 | -$1,042 | -$2,180 |
| $736 (+10%) | -$907 | -$1,143 | -$1,570 | -$2,180 |
| $770 (+15%) | -$1,253 | -$1,502 | -$1,886 | -$2,180 |
| $803 (+20%) | -$1,524 | -$1,756 | -$2,051 | -$2,180 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.