Target Price Playground
META
$669.21
๐ข
META IV: 43.0% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 56.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $670 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $54.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $590 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$2,550 (46.8%) on $5,450 risked, vs $-7,921 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $66,921. Options give 4.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $590 by Sep 18
+$2,550
+46.8% on $5,450 risked
Max Profit
+$61,550
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$5,450
Premium paid
Break-even
$615.50
-8.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.13 / -38.36 / 115.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $535 (-20%) | +$8,141 | +$7,956 | +$7,874 | +$8,013 |
| $569 (-15%) | +$5,417 | +$5,038 | +$4,684 | +$4,667 |
| $590 (-12%) โ target | +$3,855 | +$3,352 | +$2,792 | +$2,550 |
| $602 (-10%) | +$3,012 | +$2,443 | +$1,760 | +$1,321 |
| $636 (-5%) | +$965 | +$251 | -$713 | -$2,025 |
| $656 (-2%) | -$86 | -$853 | -$1,921 | -$4,033 |
| $669 (0%) โ spot | -$713 | -$1,500 | -$2,602 | -$5,371 |
| $683 (+2%) | -$1,284 | -$2,079 | -$3,185 | -$5,450 |
| $703 (+5%) | -$2,039 | -$2,824 | -$3,889 | -$5,450 |
| $736 (+10%) | -$3,052 | -$3,772 | -$4,670 | -$5,450 |
| $770 (+15%) | -$3,802 | -$4,417 | -$5,094 | -$5,450 |
| $803 (+20%) | -$4,340 | -$4,836 | -$5,301 | -$5,450 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.