Target Price Playground
META
$669.21
๐ข
META IV: 42.7% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 56.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $740 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $669.21 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $640 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $41.36 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $740 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,943 (4.1%) on $71,057 risked, vs +$7,079 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $66,921. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $740. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $740 by Sep 18
+$2,943
+4.1% on $71,057 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$7,057
Put floors you at $640
Break-even
$710.57
+6.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.43 / -35.69 / 111.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $535 (-20%) | -$6,515 | -$6,830 | -$7,095 | -$7,057 |
| $569 (-15%) | -$5,651 | -$6,160 | -$6,748 | -$7,057 |
| $602 (-10%) | -$4,418 | -$5,083 | -$5,969 | -$7,057 |
| $636 (-5%) | -$2,799 | -$3,547 | -$4,593 | -$7,057 |
| $656 (-2%) | -$1,647 | -$2,406 | -$3,459 | -$5,474 |
| $669 (0%) โ spot | -$808 | -$1,560 | -$2,584 | -$4,136 |
| $683 (+2%) | +$83 | -$650 | -$1,621 | -$2,798 |
| $703 (+5%) | +$1,513 | +$825 | -$37 | -$790 |
| $740 (+11%) โ target | +$4,427 | +$3,856 | +$3,243 | +$2,943 |
| $770 (+15%) | +$6,929 | +$6,464 | +$6,035 | +$5,902 |
| $803 (+20%) | +$9,912 | +$9,562 | +$9,297 | +$9,248 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.