Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MSFT
$385.10
๐ŸŸข
MSFT IV: 34.7% โ€” LOW (-31.9% vs 30d avg of 51.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $405 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

68d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.37 ยท ฮ” -0.28
P&L at Expiry Now $385 Target $405 $270 $385 $501
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MSFT hits $405 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,237 (3.6%) on $-1,237 credit (max loss $34,263), vs +$1,990 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $38,510. Options give 0.7ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MSFT hits $405 by Sep 18
+$1,237
+3.6% on $34,263 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,237
If the stock โ‰ฅ $355 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$34,263
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$342.63
-11.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
27.73 / 15.03 / -54.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MSFT Price Today Aug 3 Aug 26 Sep 18 (exp)
$308 (-20%) -$3,688 -$3,547 -$3,429 -$3,455
$327 (-15%) -$2,295 -$2,047 -$1,742 -$1,529
$347 (-10%) -$1,172 -$853 -$409 +$396
$366 (-5%) -$326 +$8 +$468 +$1,237
$377 (-2%) +$60 +$376 +$790 +$1,237
$385 (0%) โ† spot +$271 +$568 +$936 +$1,237
$393 (+2%) +$451 +$724 +$1,040 +$1,237
$405 (+5%) โ† target +$678 +$908 +$1,142 +$1,237
$424 (+10%) +$915 +$1,079 +$1,209 +$1,237
$443 (+15%) +$1,062 +$1,167 +$1,230 +$1,237
$462 (+20%) +$1,145 +$1,208 +$1,236 +$1,237
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.