Target Price Playground
MSFT
$385.10
๐ข
MSFT IV: 34.7% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 51.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $385.1 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $365 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.95 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $425 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,395 (6.0%) on $40,105 risked, vs +$3,990 (10.4%) for 100 shares on $38,510. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $425 by Sep 18
+$2,395
+6.0% on $40,105 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,605
Put floors you at $365
Break-even
$401.05
+4.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.58 / -16.37 / 63.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $308 (-20%) | -$3,529 | -$3,622 | -$3,673 | -$3,605 |
| $327 (-15%) | -$3,105 | -$3,311 | -$3,534 | -$3,605 |
| $347 (-10%) | -$2,436 | -$2,734 | -$3,133 | -$3,605 |
| $366 (-5%) | -$1,495 | -$1,837 | -$2,320 | -$3,520 |
| $377 (-2%) | -$804 | -$1,146 | -$1,616 | -$2,365 |
| $385 (0%) โ spot | -$295 | -$626 | -$1,066 | -$1,595 |
| $393 (+2%) | +$250 | -$64 | -$462 | -$825 |
| $404 (+5%) | +$1,129 | +$850 | +$528 | +$331 |
| $425 (+10%) โ target | +$2,846 | +$2,641 | +$2,452 | +$2,395 |
| $443 (+15%) | +$4,447 | +$4,303 | +$4,199 | +$4,182 |
| $462 (+20%) | +$6,252 | +$6,160 | +$6,111 | +$6,107 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.