Target Price Playground
MSFT
$385.10
๐ข
MSFT IV: 34.7% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 51.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.4 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $415 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.68 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $430 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,828 (156.0%) on $1,172 risked, vs +$4,490 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $38,510. Options give 13.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $430 by Sep 18
+$1,828
+156.0% on $1,172 risked
Max Profit
+$1,828
If the stock โฅ $415 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,172
Net debit
Break-even
$396.72
+3.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.16 / -1.49 / 5.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $308 (-20%) | -$1,043 | -$1,114 | -$1,166 | -$1,172 |
| $327 (-15%) | -$894 | -$1,005 | -$1,131 | -$1,172 |
| $347 (-10%) | -$662 | -$793 | -$1,000 | -$1,172 |
| $366 (-5%) | -$354 | -$465 | -$687 | -$1,172 |
| $377 (-2%) | -$143 | -$222 | -$396 | -$1,172 |
| $385 (0%) โ spot | +$4 | -$47 | -$168 | -$1,162 |
| $393 (+2%) | +$153 | +$132 | +$77 | -$392 |
| $404 (+5%) | +$375 | +$402 | +$453 | +$764 |
| $424 (+10%) | +$725 | +$821 | +$1,016 | +$1,828 |
| $430 (+12%) โ target | +$831 | +$944 | +$1,169 | +$1,828 |
| $443 (+15%) | +$1,027 | +$1,164 | +$1,416 | +$1,828 |
| $462 (+20%) | +$1,268 | +$1,417 | +$1,645 | +$1,828 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.