Target Price Playground
MSFT
$385.10
๐ข
MSFT IV: 34.7% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 51.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.4 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $430 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$1,760 (64.2%) on $2,740 risked, vs +$4,490 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $38,510. Options give 5.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $430 by Sep 18
+$1,760
+64.2% on $2,740 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,740
Premium paid
Break-even
$412.40
+7.09% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.49 / -20.48 / 66.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $308 (-20%) | -$2,550 | -$2,667 | -$2,733 | -$2,740 |
| $327 (-15%) | -$2,298 | -$2,514 | -$2,695 | -$2,740 |
| $347 (-10%) | -$1,854 | -$2,183 | -$2,540 | -$2,740 |
| $366 (-5%) | -$1,174 | -$1,594 | -$2,125 | -$2,740 |
| $377 (-2%) | -$642 | -$1,096 | -$1,692 | -$2,740 |
| $385 (0%) โ spot | -$237 | -$701 | -$1,318 | -$2,730 |
| $393 (+2%) | +$208 | -$259 | -$875 | -$1,960 |
| $404 (+5%) | +$948 | +$492 | -$90 | -$804 |
| $424 (+10%) | +$2,347 | +$1,939 | +$1,472 | +$1,121 |
| $430 (+12%) โ target | +$2,852 | +$2,466 | +$2,042 | +$1,760 |
| $443 (+15%) | +$3,919 | +$3,579 | +$3,239 | +$3,047 |
| $462 (+20%) | +$5,617 | +$5,345 | +$5,106 | +$4,972 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.