Target Price Playground
MSFT
$385.10
๐ข
MSFT IV: 34.7% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 51.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.6 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $340 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$1,940 (75.8%) on $2,560 risked, vs $-4,510 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $38,510. Options give 6.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $340 by Sep 18
+$1,940
+75.8% on $2,560 risked
Max Profit
+$35,940
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,560
Premium paid
Break-even
$359.40
-6.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
44%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.7 / -17.79 / 66.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $308 (-20%) | +$5,000 | +$4,988 | +$5,030 | +$5,132 |
| $327 (-15%) | +$3,327 | +$3,214 | +$3,142 | +$3,206 |
| $340 (-12%) โ target | +$2,328 | +$2,141 | +$1,957 | +$1,940 |
| $347 (-10%) | +$1,845 | +$1,621 | +$1,372 | +$1,281 |
| $366 (-5%) | +$600 | +$284 | -$139 | -$645 |
| $377 (-2%) | -$24 | -$373 | -$861 | -$1,800 |
| $385 (0%) โ spot | -$388 | -$749 | -$1,257 | -$2,560 |
| $393 (+2%) | -$713 | -$1,076 | -$1,584 | -$2,560 |
| $404 (+5%) | -$1,130 | -$1,482 | -$1,955 | -$2,560 |
| $424 (+10%) | -$1,655 | -$1,959 | -$2,318 | -$2,560 |
| $443 (+15%) | -$2,009 | -$2,246 | -$2,477 | -$2,560 |
| $462 (+20%) | -$2,237 | -$2,405 | -$2,535 | -$2,560 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.