Target Price Playground
MSFT
$385.10
๐ข
MSFT IV: 34.6% โ LOW
(-32.0% vs 30d avg of 51.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.4 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.6 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $445 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$700 (13.2%) on $5,300 risked, vs +$5,990 (15.6%) for 100 shares on $38,510. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $445 by Sep 18
+$700
+13.2% on $5,300 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,300
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$438.00
+13.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.8 / -38.27 / 132.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $308 (-20%) | +$2,450 | +$2,321 | +$2,296 | +$2,392 |
| $327 (-15%) | +$1,030 | +$701 | +$448 | +$466 |
| $347 (-10%) | -$9 | -$562 | -$1,167 | -$1,459 |
| $366 (-5%) | -$574 | -$1,310 | -$2,263 | -$3,385 |
| $377 (-2%) | -$666 | -$1,469 | -$2,554 | -$4,540 |
| $385 (0%) โ spot | -$625 | -$1,451 | -$2,575 | -$5,290 |
| $393 (+2%) | -$504 | -$1,335 | -$2,458 | -$4,520 |
| $404 (+5%) | -$182 | -$991 | -$2,045 | -$3,364 |
| $424 (+10%) | +$692 | -$20 | -$847 | -$1,439 |
| $445 (+16%) โ target | +$2,062 | +$1,501 | +$956 | +$700 |
| $462 (+20%) | +$3,380 | +$2,940 | +$2,571 | +$2,412 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.