Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $345 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$565 (1.9%) on $-565 credit (max loss $29,435), vs +$1,841 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | -$3,287 | -$3,252 | -$3,248 | -$3,308 |
| $278 (-15%) | -$1,993 | -$1,866 | -$1,723 | -$1,675 |
| $294 (-10%) | -$981 | -$787 | -$514 | -$42 |
| $310 (-5%) | -$281 | -$80 | +$193 | +$565 |
| $320 (-2%) | +$4 | +$181 | +$399 | +$565 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | +$146 | +$302 | +$475 | +$565 |
| $333 (+2%) | +$258 | +$389 | +$518 | +$565 |
| $345 (+6%) โ target | +$396 | +$485 | +$553 | +$565 |
| $359 (+10%) | +$488 | +$537 | +$563 | +$565 |
| $376 (+15%) | +$536 | +$558 | +$565 | +$565 |
| $392 (+20%) | +$555 | +$563 | +$565 | +$565 |