Valuation Regime Multiple-Expansion Tracker

Is the market paying up for expensive stocks right now? We track the trailing 20-session return of the priciest fifth of the market (by P/E) minus the cheapest fifth. When that spread is positive (EXPANSION ON), premium-valuation names in uptrends have historically kept working; when it flips negative (OFF), the same names de-rate fastest. The regime state feeds the Market Pulse takeaways and gates a nightly screen of "premium & working" picks — high-multiple stocks above a rising 50-day average that are still beating SPY.

Regime ON
high-PE beating low-PE over 20 sessions
In past ON regimes the premium picks averaged +2.67% over the next 30 days — paying up was rewarded, especially in the sectors whose expensive half was leading.
Regime OFF
cheap stocks leading, premium de-rating
In OFF regimes the same picks averaged −0.51% over 30 days while the index stayed positive — the screen goes on standby and the list becomes watchlist-only.
🔒

The live regime state and premium picks are a Pro feature

Pro members see today's ON/OFF regime call with the spread history, the sector-by-sector pay-up / don't-pay-up strip with drill-down picks, and the nightly "premium & working" screen sorted by 20-day strength vs SPY.

Upgrade to Pro