Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 28.3% โ LOW
(-42.3% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $326.59 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.64 ยท ฮ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $355 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$3,405 (10.6%) on $32,095 risked, vs +$2,841 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $355 by Sep 18
+$3,405
+10.6% on $32,095 risked
Max Profit
+$3,405
If the stock โฅ $355 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$32,095
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$320.95
-1.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
44%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
73.95 / 11.2 / -37.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | -$5,973 | -$5,968 | -$5,968 | -$5,968 |
| $278 (-15%) | -$4,358 | -$4,340 | -$4,335 | -$4,335 |
| $294 (-10%) | -$2,788 | -$2,730 | -$2,704 | -$2,702 |
| $310 (-5%) | -$1,317 | -$1,186 | -$1,088 | -$1,069 |
| $320 (-2%) | -$511 | -$326 | -$150 | -$89 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | -$16 | +$206 | +$443 | +$564 |
| $333 (+2%) | +$441 | +$698 | +$998 | +$1,217 |
| $343 (+5%) | +$1,050 | +$1,348 | +$1,730 | +$2,197 |
| $355 (+9%) โ target | +$1,668 | +$1,993 | +$2,424 | +$3,405 |
| $359 (+10%) | +$1,852 | +$2,178 | +$2,609 | +$3,405 |
| $376 (+15%) | +$2,403 | +$2,704 | +$3,070 | +$3,405 |
| $392 (+20%) | +$2,749 | +$2,995 | +$3,250 | +$3,405 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.