Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.25 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $290 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.44 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $275 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$1,619 (183.8%) on $881 risked, vs $-3,833 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 15.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $275 by Oct 16
+$1,619
+183.8% on $881 risked
Max Profit
+$1,619
If the stock โค $290 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$881
Net debit
Break-even
$306.19
-2.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-26.97 / -1.55 / 10.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | +$1,432 | +$1,518 | +$1,596 | +$1,619 |
| $266 (-15%) | +$1,212 | +$1,331 | +$1,495 | +$1,619 |
| $275 (-12%) โ target | +$1,040 | +$1,157 | +$1,349 | +$1,619 |
| $282 (-10%) | +$880 | +$981 | +$1,166 | +$1,619 |
| $298 (-5%) | +$478 | +$509 | +$569 | +$853 |
| $307 (-2%) | +$232 | +$212 | +$164 | -$87 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | +$76 | +$24 | -$86 | -$714 |
| $320 (+2%) | -$70 | -$148 | -$303 | -$881 |
| $329 (+5%) | -$266 | -$369 | -$551 | -$881 |
| $345 (+10%) | -$518 | -$628 | -$777 | -$881 |
| $360 (+15%) | -$684 | -$771 | -$856 | -$881 |
| $376 (+20%) | -$782 | -$838 | -$876 | -$881 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.