Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $330 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$444 (1.6%) on $-444 credit (max loss $28,556), vs +$1,667 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | -$3,468 | -$3,429 | -$3,425 | -$3,490 |
| $266 (-15%) | -$2,231 | -$2,102 | -$1,966 | -$1,923 |
| $282 (-10%) | -$1,247 | -$1,047 | -$783 | -$356 |
| $298 (-5%) | -$540 | -$324 | -$40 | +$444 |
| $307 (-2%) | -$239 | -$41 | +$202 | +$444 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | -$83 | +$97 | +$301 | +$444 |
| $320 (+2%) | +$43 | +$201 | +$363 | +$444 |
| $330 (+5%) โ target | +$196 | +$315 | +$415 | +$444 |
| $345 (+10%) | +$325 | +$396 | +$439 | +$444 |
| $360 (+15%) | +$393 | +$429 | +$443 | +$444 |
| $376 (+20%) | +$424 | +$440 | +$444 | +$444 |