Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $313.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.05 ยท ฮ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $340 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$3,172 (10.3%) on $30,828 risked, vs +$2,667 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $340 by Oct 16
+$3,172
+10.3% on $30,828 risked
Max Profit
+$3,172
If the stock โฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,828
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$308.28
-1.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
74.28 / 8.94 / -38.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | -$5,771 | -$5,763 | -$5,762 | -$5,762 |
| $266 (-15%) | -$4,233 | -$4,204 | -$4,195 | -$4,195 |
| $282 (-10%) | -$2,750 | -$2,672 | -$2,632 | -$2,628 |
| $298 (-5%) | -$1,375 | -$1,217 | -$1,094 | -$1,062 |
| $307 (-2%) | -$627 | -$413 | -$211 | -$122 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | -$168 | +$82 | +$344 | +$505 |
| $320 (+2%) | +$256 | +$539 | +$859 | +$1,132 |
| $329 (+5%) | +$821 | +$1,142 | +$1,534 | +$2,072 |
| $340 (+9%) โ target | +$1,373 | +$1,717 | +$2,150 | +$3,172 |
| $345 (+10%) | +$1,572 | +$1,918 | +$2,352 | +$3,172 |
| $360 (+15%) | +$2,101 | +$2,424 | +$2,799 | +$3,172 |
| $376 (+20%) | +$2,445 | +$2,717 | +$2,990 | +$3,172 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.